The monsoon forecast by India’s weather office could include a new feature that will make it more useful to sectors such as tourism,
shipping, airlines, logistics and transport companies apart from its core constituency of farmers.
Climate change and global warming and the impact of these on the Indian monsoons is also being studied at length and could find a place in the forecast on a regular basis.
Up to now, the Indian Meterological Department or IMD has included five day forecasts and outlook for the next two-days.
This year, however, it could provide forecasts for one week and an outlook for the next.
In addition, the department also plans to include detailed footnotes on active monsoon phases and breaks in between. Farmers will get the details in advance, allowing them to plan a fortnight ahead in the sensitive sowing and harvest seasons.
The India Institute of Tropical Meteorology had developed the analogues technique for realtime prediction of active-break spells and the IMD had used the technique for the first time in 2008.
“The regular updation of prediction models and forecast methods are aimed at detailed and tailor-made predictions for different sectors in today’s economy. The plans have been kept in abeyance for now, not shelved,“ an official held.
In 2008, the IMD had spelt out big plans including setting up a 24-hr weather channel, weekly bulletins through the year, specialised and tailor made periodic forecasts of monsoon, summer and year-long.
The IMD’s current model that was first used in 2007 yields a two phased forecast of the June-September season as opposed to the earlier single phased forecast.
The first phase includes an overall countrywide monsoon forecast while the second, usually issued towards end June, is more detailed and issued region wise.
While operational long range forecasts issued by the IMD have mostly been accurate, the second phase forecasts have not been so.
July is the key sowing month for the kharif crop season, which accounts for nearly 55% of the country’s farm output including sugarcane, paddy, soyabean, groundnut, and several pulses.
Increasingly, however, the percentage of farm output in the Rabi season has been going up.
Unofficially, the IMD has indicated that this season, monsoon rains will be 98% of the 50-year (LPA) average.
Many key impactors including the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are being tracked by agencies world-wide to get readings on the first Indian summer monsoon after the country’s worst drought in 37 years.
Scientists and climatologists the world over agree, however, that forecasting the India’s summer monsoon , which has often proved inaccurate, is a big challenge.
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